The Age of Magical Overthinking: Notes on Modern Irrationality

The Age of Magical Overthinking: Notes on Modern Irrationality by Amanda Montell, published in 2023, explores how cognitive biases shape our perceptions. Montell, a linguist and author known for her work on cult-like language in her book Cultish, uses her expertise in sociolinguistics to dissect the irrational ways in which modern humans process information. In this nonfiction work, she combines personal anecdotes with scientific research to analyze biases like confirmation bias, overconfidence bias, and the illusory truth effect. Through a mix of humor and critical insight, Montell addresses The Psychological Effects of Social Media, questioning The Impact of Digital Culture on Perception and Decision-Making. Thematically, the book also dives into The Challenge of Maintaining Rationality in an Era of Overwhelming Information and Connectivity, encouraging readers to reflect on their own cognitive patterns.

This guide refers to the e-book edition published in 2024 by Simon & Schuster.

Summary

In The Age of Magical Overthinking, Montell explores how cognitive biases shape modern irrationality. Throughout the Introduction, Montell reflects on her own irrational behavior, including staying in a toxic relationship. She explains how cognitive biases, like the halo effect and proportionality bias, influence perceptions and behaviors, often leading to overestimations of cause-and-effect relationships.

The first chapter focuses on celebrity fandom and the psychological dynamics behind “stans” and extreme fan behavior. Montell links these behaviors to the halo effect, where fans attribute exaggerated positive traits to celebrities, creating a sense of intimacy and emotional investment. She also explores how social media magnifies these relationships, fostering an environment where fans become overly protective of their idols, often at the cost of rational thinking.

In Chapter 2, Montell introduces the concept of proportionality bias, which occurs when people overestimate the significance of events, leading to conspiracy theories. She uses examples like social media influencers who push pseudoscience, such as The Manifestation Doctor, to show how this bias can lead to harmful belief systems. Montell links these trends to societal mistrust in institutions and a desire for simple solutions to complex problems, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Next, Montell dives into the concept of the sunk cost fallacy, which is the cognitive bias that leads people to continue investing in something based on past investments rather than its current or future value. Montell reflects on her personal experience of staying in a toxic, seven-year relationship with an older man, Mr. Backpack, and how she rationalized staying with him, thinking that if she invested more effort, the relationship would eventually improve. She acknowledges that this bias affects many aspects of life, from relationships to financial decisions, and highlights how it can trap people in harmful situations. Montell also discusses how modern social pressures and societal expectations, particularly around marriage and success, further exacerbate this fallacy.

In Chapter 4, Montell examines how digital culture and social media intensify self-perception issues, particularly through the lens of the zero-sum bias—the belief that someone else’s gain inherently means your loss. Montell shares her experiences working in the beauty industry, where she became obsessed with achieving perfection, leading to constant comparisons with others. Social media, she argues, has turned self-worth into a competitive endeavor, where users continually compare themselves to curated images of success and beauty. Montell critiques the capitalist pressures that fuel these biases while also exploring how they affect individuals’ mental health. She introduces the “shine theory,” which promotes celebrating others’ successes instead of seeing them as a threat, as a way to counteract the zero-sum bias.

Montell then focuses on survivorship bias, which leads people to overestimate the success of certain behaviors or individuals while ignoring those who don’t succeed. She reflects on her friendship with Racheli, a cancer survivor who shared her journey online. Montell explains how survivorship bias distorts perceptions of success, as people tend to focus on those who survive or succeed while ignoring those who do not, creating skewed narratives about hard work and positivity. She argues that this bias can lead to unrealistic expectations and feelings of failure for those who don’t experience the same outcomes. Montell also critiques how social media perpetuates these skewed success stories, contributing to a distorted view of reality.

The recency illusion, or the tendency to believe that something is new or novel simply because it gained recent attention, is introduced next. Montell reflects on how media cycles perpetuate this illusion, making every news story feel like a crisis that must be addressed immediately. Montell shares her experience watching UFO-related media and feeling a rush of anxiety, only for the story to quickly fade from the news cycle. She critiques how the constant barrage of information, particularly on social media, distorts time and reality, overwhelming people’s ability to think critically and rationally. Montell argues that while staying informed is important, the way the information is presented today does more harm than good, feeding into biases like the recency illusion.

Chapter 7 examines overconfidence bias, or the tendency for individuals to overestimate their knowledge and abilities. She reflects on the infamous case of McArthur Wheeler, a man who tried to rob a bank after covering his face with lemon juice, believing that it would make him invisible because lemon juice can be used as invisible ink. This story highlights the dangers of overconfidence, as Wheeler thought that he had outsmarted the system with minimal understanding. Montell links this bias to the Dunning-Kruger effect, where people with less knowledge are more likely to overestimate their competence. She critiques how American culture often celebrates overconfidence with mantras like “fake it ’til you make it” while overlooking the dangers of inflated self-perception.

Then, Montell turns to the illusory truth effect, a bias where people believe that something is true simply because they’ve heard it repeated multiple times. She shares an example from her own writing career, where she believed that women historically carried wedding bouquets to mask their odor, only to be corrected by an expert who explained that this is a myth. Montell explains how repetition reinforces misinformation, leading people to believe in incorrect narratives, such as stereotypes about welfare recipients or false medical information. She argues that while some illusory truths are harmless, others can be deeply damaging, and public figures often manipulate this effect to spread misinformation.

In Chapter 9, the discussion turns to confirmation bias, which leads people to favor information that supports their preexisting beliefs. Montell uses the example of dinosaurs to highlight how religious groups have historically manipulated information to fit their doctrines. Montell and her friend Kristen, raised in a fundamentalist household, discussed how she was taught that dinosaurs lived alongside humans, a belief supported by selective interpretations of religious texts. Montell critiques how confirmation bias contributes to irrational thinking, especially when it comes to apocalyptic beliefs and conspiracy theories. She notes that while confirmation bias can sometimes be helpful in decision-making, it often leads to groupthink and weakens critical analysis.

Moving on, Montell explores the paradox of the rising quality of life alongside stagnant happiness in modern society, introducing the term “anemoia,” which was coined by John Koenig. This term refers to nostalgia for a time that one has never experienced, and Montell links it to declinism—the illusion that society is in a state of decline. She argues that biases like the fading affect bias and present bias distort perceptions of both the past and the present, leading people to romanticize bygone eras. She critiques how nostalgia is weaponized by marketing and political figures and warns that doomsday thinking, in today’s language, could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. While acknowledging real issues like climate change, Montell also cites thinkers like Maggie Nelson and Max Rosser, who argue that the world is improving in terms of poverty and literacy. She suggests that anemoia may stem from a desire to escape modern consumerism and offers a new term, “tempusur,” encouraging people to appreciate the present moment as it slips away.

In the final chapter of The Age of Magical Overthinking, Montell discusses the IKEA effect—the tendency to place greater value on items that we’ve partially created ourselves. After flipping furniture with her friend Racheli during the COVID-19 quarantine, Montell experienced the sense of fulfillment that her therapist had advised her to cultivate by working with her hands. She connects this feeling to DIY trends, suggesting that people crave productivity and the sense of contribution it brings. Montell also likens the IKEA effect to the sunk cost fallacy, noting how both biases justify effort. While she acknowledges the flaws of capitalism, Montell emphasizes that productivity can foster social connection and personal pride. She contrasts this with fears of artificial intelligence surpassing human creativity, asserting that while technology evolves rapidly, human adaptability remains a constant. Montell ends the book on an optimistic note, reminding readers that while technology changes, humanity’s collective resilience endures.